Summary in seconds: the Russia-Ukraine war has created a complex landscape of winners and losers. The direct participants, Russia and Ukraine, bear significant immediate costs, yet they may also face long-term opportunities. Nations that support either side gain geopolitical leverage, but they also risk economic and diplomatic repercussions. This article will examine the war’s impact on the direct participants—Russia and Ukraine. In my next article, I will explore the effects on countries that either support one side or remain neutral.
Winners and Losers of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Categorized Analysis
The Russia-Ukraine war has had profound implications, reshaping geopolitical dynamics, economic policies, and international alliances. The following article presents an analysis of the potential losses and rewards for different categories of stakeholders in the conflict.
First: Troop Casualties on Ukraine and Russian Sides
According to congress.gov, the war in Ukraine has caused a staggering toll in terms of military casualties, with estimates approaching 500,000 wounded or killed troops from both Ukraine and Russia. U.S. officials report that Russia’s military losses are significantly higher than Ukraine’s, with roughly 300,000 casualties, including up to 120,000 deaths and over 170,000 injuries. In comparison, Ukraine has seen approximately 70,000 soldiers killed and between 100,000 and 120,000 wounded. These figures remain difficult to verify due to Russia’s tendency to underreport casualties and Ukraine’s reluctance to disclose official figures. The battle, especially in eastern Ukraine and the ongoing counteroffensive, has escalated the death toll.
The conflict, which has been ongoing for 18 months, has intensified in recent months, particularly during the battle for Bakhmut, where both sides suffered heavy losses. Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which began with heavy Western support, initially struggled due to ineffective tactics and the vast number of Russian minefields. Despite this, the Ukrainian military has adapted, focusing on artillery and long-range missiles rather than direct assaults, which has reduced casualties but could deplete essential ammunition reserves.
U.S. officials are concerned about Ukraine’s growing reluctance to sustain high casualties, which is affecting its approach to the counteroffensive. The brutal nature of close combat, which often mirrors World War I-style trench warfare, has caused the casualty rate to soar. Thousands of artillery rounds are fired every week, and the battlefield is littered with landmines, while drones and tanks increase the lethality of each engagement. This has been compounded by a lack of rapid medical care on the frontlines, as the military struggles to evacuate and treat the wounded.
Second: Civilian Casualties in Ukraine and Russia
In addition to military casualties, the war has resulted in significant civilian deaths and injuries on both sides. Civilian casualties include those from airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and ground operations in urban and civilian areas. As of late 2024, civilian casualties in Ukraine alone were reported in the tens of thousands, with millions displaced both inside Ukraine and abroad.
Civilian Deaths
By 31 December 2024, (Office of High Commission for Human Rights) OHCHR had recorded 40,838 civilian casualties in Ukraine since February 24, 2022: 12,456 killed and 28,382 injured, but they believe the real number is higher. This included 34,047 (9,824 killed and 24,223 injured) occurring on territory controlled by the government of Ukraine and 7,151 (2,632 killed and 4,519 injured) on territory controlled by Russian armed forces or their affiliates. 10,692 deaths were caused by explosive weapons “with wide area effects,” 413 by mines and explosive remnants, and 1,351 by small arms, including from crossfire, or road accidents involving military or civilian vehicles.
Toll on Ukrainian Civilians After 2 Years of Conflict
The war in Ukraine has been devastating. Over 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed since the war began. Almost 5 million Ukrainians are still internally displaced, and close to 6 million are refugees across Europe. Overall, more than one in three Ukrainians is displaced. Many who return to their homes struggle to rebuild their lives, as they have run out of money and found their homes reduced to rubble.
The war has also taken a toll on Ukrainians’ mental health. Many live with the constant stress and anxiety of impending missiles and artillery, with 30% of the population suffering from mental health disorders. Anna, a single mother of three children, experiences anxiety every time an air raid siren goes off. She fears for her children while they are in school because she does not know where a missile could hit. “All I want is quietness,” she says. Anna is unemployed but is able to provide for her children thanks to cash assistance from the (United Nations World Food Program) UNWFP.
Today, nearly a quarter of Ukraine’s population lives in poverty. About 1 in 5 families are food insecure. The closer to the frontlines families live, the more difficult it is for them to find, afford, and prepare food.
Russian Civilian Casualties
As of 30 June 2023, OHCHR said it had received information on 287 civilian casualties in Western Russia, with 58 killed and 229 injured, while six more were killed and 16 injured in the Republic of Crimea. Another two civilians were killed and one injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the Crimean bridge on 17 July 2023, while five civilians were killed and 151 were injured by a Ukrainian missile attack in Sevastopol, Crimea, on 23 June 2024. Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian-installed head of Crimea, also alleged that a Ukrainian attack on drilling platforms in the Black Sea near Crimea had left seven Chernomorneftegaz workers missing. The 7×7 Russian opposition media outlet confirmed the deaths of 394 civilians in Russia by 25 December 2024, not including those in Crimea. In addition, missiles struck the Polish border village of Przewodów in Lublin Voivodeship on 15 November 2022 and killed two Polish civilians.
Challenges in Reporting:
- Russian Disinformation: Russia has provided limited and often misleading information about its casualties, and independent verification is difficult.
- Ukrainian Reporting: The Ukrainian government has also been cautious about revealing exact numbers, especially regarding soldiers’ deaths, although Ukrainian authorities have shared estimates and reports from international organizations.
The full impact of the war on both sides is still unfolding, and the situation is subject to change as the conflict continues. The humanitarian toll, including both military and civilian losses, is one of the most tragic aspects of the ongoing war.
Third: The Economic, Social, and Environmental Impact of the War on Both Sides
The war in Ukraine has had significant economic, social, and environmental consequences for both Russia and Ukraine, with many of these effects expected to last long after the conflict ends.
Economic Impact:
- Ukraine: The war has devastated Ukraine’s economy, with key infrastructure like bridges, factories, and energy grids being destroyed. Ukraine’s (Gross Domestic Product) GDP shrank by about 30% in 2022. The conflict disrupted agricultural production, particularly affecting exports of grain, and damaged the energy sector, causing blackouts and shortages.
- Russia: Russia has faced heavy international sanctions targeting its financial and technology sectors, which, along with inflation and reduced access to Western markets, have hurt its economy. Although Russia has shifted trade to countries like China and India, its economy remains deeply affected. Additionally, Russia is experiencing a “brain drain” as skilled workers and professionals leave the country.
Social Impact:
- Ukraine: The war has caused millions of Ukrainians to flee their homes, creating a massive refugee crisis. Many survivors suffer from (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) PTSD, anxiety, and depression. The war has also changed the country’s demographics, as some regions have seen heavy population losses. Despite the hardships, the conflict has strengthened national unity and identity.
- Russia: Social unrest is growing in Russia, especially due to economic difficulties, military losses, and the rising number of casualties. Protests have been suppressed, and public trust in government institutions has decreased. The war has also worsened Russia’s demographic problems, with the loss of young men in the conflict contributing to an aging population.
Environmental Impact:
- Ukraine: The war has caused extensive environmental damage, including pollution from artillery and airstrikes, contamination from landmines, and the destruction of energy infrastructure. There are also concerns about the safety of nuclear power plants, especially the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is at risk of a disaster.
- Russia: In addition to the environmental damage in occupied territories, Russia’s military actions have harmed ecosystems. Russia’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, despite losing access to European markets, has also been criticized in the context of global climate change.
In summary, the war has deeply affected both countries, with lasting damage to their economies, societies, and environments.
Fourth: How the War Affected the Future Relationship Between the Ukrainian People and Future Governments and Their Counterparts on the Russian Side
The war in Ukraine has had significant effects on both Ukraine and Russia, shaping their positions on the international stage and influencing their future relationships with each other.
Ukraine’s Position:
- Government Stance: The war has led Ukraine to align more closely with the West, particularly the European Union (EU) and NATO, with Ukraine seeking EU membership and NATO support for security. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has become a prominent global figure, and Ukraine has gained international diplomatic influence despite the ongoing conflict.
- People’s Stance: Ukrainians feel a strong sense of national pride and unity, with many supporting closer ties with the EU. The war has strengthened Ukraine’s national identity, with citizens increasingly viewing themselves as part of the broader European community. They also see their struggle as a fight for democracy and self-determination.
Russia’s Position:
- Government Stance: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to its growing isolation from Western countries, facing harsh sanctions and diplomatic exclusion. In response, Russia has focused on strengthening ties with non-Western countries, particularly China and India, but its influence has significantly diminished on the global stage.
- People’s Stance: The Russian public’s view of the war is divided. While some support the government’s actions, many are disillusioned, especially as casualties rise. The government uses propaganda to maintain control, framing the war as a patriotic defense against NATO, but growing dissent is evident in major cities.
International Implications:
- Ukraine: Ukraine has gained widespread support from Western countries, including military and humanitarian aid. The country has become a symbol of resistance against aggression and has strongly advocated for international justice and human rights.
- Russia: The war has led to Russia’s increased isolation, with many countries viewing it as a destabilizing force. While Russia has sought alliances with China and other non-Western nations, it remains dependent on China for trade and political support.
Conclusion:
The war has changed the international standing of both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has strengthened its ties with the West and solidified its national identity, while Russia has become more isolated and increasingly dependent on non-Western powers. The long-term consequences of these changes will shape their future relationships with the global community.
Sources
1. Congress.gov. “Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near Half a Million, U.S. Officials Say.”
https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116768/documents/HHRG-118-ZS00-20240130-SD002.pdf
2. World Food Program, USA. “Ukraine After Two Years of War: How The Conflict Has affected Civilians.” 23 February, 2024.
3. Agence France Press (AFP). “Toll of War in Ukraine High, But Just How Much Unknown.” 12 February, 2024.
https://www.barrons.com/news/toll-of-war-in-ukraine-high-but-just-how-much-unknown-3a0fb969